It is very important to wait for next Tuesday fed's language. The market is waiting for a hint to know when the coming pause.we...

... expect soft language as there is no inflation pressure as what we have seen
recently from the core CPI data which has increased modestly by .1%
last month showing that there is no pressure on the fed to tighten but
the coming .25% of next weak was discounted and the fed can not make a
shock by holding next week but it is waited to have soft language
suggest that the fed movement will be much increased on the data and
the inflation data is not supporting. we have seen last week how much
was the impact of the housing data on the currency market as there is
no other data to concentrate on and Bernaneke repeated comments that
the move will be on the data. The slow down of the new home sales
could bring back the Euro above 1.2

Ben Bernaneke has described that there is no concern on the decline of
the 10 years treasury yields as the economy was at an accommodative
stance. So, this decline of its yield to be lower than the 2 years
yields is not a concern and US economy is still growing well. The
strong existing home sales to 1.69 mln could encourage the market to
buy USD but these disappointing new home sales have brought back the
focus on the current modest inflation pressure and increased the
probability of a pause in May. The new home sales is much watched than
the existing sales as it shows the progress of the new building
investment and its much sensitive to the interest rate movement.

Best Wishes

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