GBP/JPY * Cable has rallied nicely against the Yen the past week, having traded above the psychological 210.00 level and even closing above the figure...

... yesterday.


The pair has touched its upper Bollinger band on the daily everyday for the last 12
days, with today being the thirteenth day of strength. However, oscillators on the
daily are looking weaker with a RSI falling below 70 and a negative stochastic cross
above 80 suggesting that day number thirteen on the Bollinger band will indeed be
unlucky for bulls. Interesting as well is a common pattern of the pair where it
often makes a larges positive candle on the daily chart; the day before a decline.
The candle is often the largest or very close to the largest in the current uptrend.
Such candles formed on Nov. 11, Dec. 12, Feb. 2, and yesterday. The prior candles
all preceded violent price declines.

GBP/CHF * GBP/CHF also looks like it is running out of steam, getting rejected at a
trendline that began on the 2/28 high (2.3051). Daily oscillators have slowed and
are more or less neutral with RSI at 50. Further evidence of a move down is the
double top on hourly charts (accompanied by negative divergence as well) from the
last two days highs at 2.2746. Support comes in at the 38.2% fibo of 1.2575-2.2746
at 2.2681 with a break below giving scope to yesterday's low at 2.2587. The double
top at 2.2746 serves as initial resistance.

GBP/AUD * GBP/AUD has traded in a range the past week mostly between 2.4149 and
2.4098, consolidating losses from the downtrend that began in late March at 2.4800.
Daily oscillators are slightly bearish with MACD just crossing into negative
territory and RSI declining below the 50 midpoint. The intraday chart is more
telling though as it shows a descending triangle with its support anywhere from
2.3907 to 2.3943 (4/18 and 4/19 lows). A break below the 4/18 low at 2.3907 sees
sellers target the 4/11 low at 2.3749 and eventually the 76.4% fibo of 2.3351-2.4843
at 2.3706. Support stems from today's high at 2.4051 with additional gains
targeting the 4/17 high at 2.4149.



Jamie Saettele
Forex Capital Markets LLC
New York, NY 10005
Tel (212) 897-7660
Fax (212) 897-7669
Toll Free 888-503-6739
jsaettele@dailyfx.com