By DailyFX - EUR/AUD * EUR/AUD spent the last week digesting losses from the 1.7111-1.6499 early April downtrend. Oscillators are turning bearish on the...

... daily with MACD inching towards 0 and RSI just below 50 with a slightly negative slope.

Yesterday's rally was rejected right at the 38.2% fibo of the mentioned downtrend from 1.7111 at
1.6732, which remains initial resistance. The recent activity looks like a bear
flag as well, with a break below the 4/19 low of 1.6524 favoring a resumption of the
larger downward move and targeting the 61.8% fibo of 1.5962-1.7111 at 1.6403.

EUR/CAD * EUR/CAD rallied furiously at the end of last week and into the beginning
of this week, but was turned back by the 50% fibo of 1.4361-1.3834 at 1.4100. A
head and shoulders reversal is evident on the daily chart, suggesting that the path
of least resistance is down. Support comes in at the confluence of the 10 day SMA /
50% fibo of 1.3838-1.4111 at 1.3971/75. A break below would target the 4/14 low /
76.4% fibo of the same bear move at 1.3903. Hourly oscillators are sloping down and
thus also favor shorts but a push higher would see resistance at the 4/19 high of
1.4111. Only a daily close above the high of the left shoulder (3/20 high) at
1.4223 would negate the bearish implications of the head and shoulders pattern.

EUR/NZD * EUR/NZD also spent the past week primarily in a range, bound by 1.9715 and
1.9400. Daily oscillators suggest that the pair is going to resume its descent from
the 2.0223 top made on 4/4. RSI is steadily decreasing from previously overbought
levels and MACD is declining towards the 0 line. The 10 day SMA also just recently
crossed the 20 day SMA * this is the first such cross since a positive cross on 2/21
that preceded the massive run-up from 1.8000. Support comes in at the 4/13 low of
1.9336 with a break targeting the 3/24 low at 1.9136. A rebound from the recent
decline sees a test of the double top, also indicating further losses, at
yesterday's high of 1.9712.


Jamie Saettele
Forex Capital Markets LLC
New York, NY 10005
Tel (212) 897-7660
Fax (212) 897-7669
Toll Free 888-503-6739
jsaettele@dailyfx.com