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02 June                   Email to a friend


Fx Fundamentals
By DailyFX - EUR/USD - Euro bulls took out the 1.2800 figure in early US trade yesterday, but the pair remains mired in the 1.2700-1.2900...

... range.The 1.2700 support remains key to any further dollar gains.

A break there would open the way to a test of 1.2625 support. Conversely a breakout
above the 1.2900 levels targets the 1.3000 barrier and beyond. For the
time being low volatility range conditions prevail but a breakout may
come sooner rather than later.

USD/JPY - A fake breakout of the 113.00 level wrong footed some dollar
longs yesterday as the pair quickly retraced back to 112.50. The bias in
the USD/JPY however remains to the bullish side as MACD continues to
point upward. Only a break below the 112,00 handle will change the
posture back to a yen long bias, but for the time being yen continues to
underperform the euro and a second break above the 113.00 level could
prove more decisive than the first.

GBP/USD - Much like the euro the pound verticalized for 100 point sin 1
hour yesterday, but since then has spend all of its time distributing
its gains across time . The fact that it has not taken out the highs
during its 1 hour ramp to 1.8693 may be troubling for some cable bull
looking for follow through, however the indecision I the price action
reflects the uncertainly of the overall market and the pair may well be
primed to move higher. 1.8550 remains principal support which if given,
may trigger a retrace all the way to 1.8100. On the topside 1.9000
remains the glass ceiling for the pair that will require tremendous
momentum to overcome.


USD/CHF - The correction in USD/CHF much like the other majors caught
dollar longs by surprise, however it stopped right at 50% Fibo of of
the 1.2085-1.2240 bull wave from 5/30-6/1 and has held the 1.2200 level
since. Both RSI and MACD remain bullish providing dome solace to dollar
longs, however the 1.2300 level remains a key drag on the upside while a
break of 1.2100 could easily see the pair slip to 1.1900 before finding
nay meaningful support.

USD/CAD - A major whipsaw in USD/CAD yesterday as the pair rocketed to
1.1100 only to plunge to 1.1000 in less than 2 hours. However, after the
volatility the pair settled into an upward bias trading back to 1.1040.
although all indicators remain bearish the pair may be in the process of
establishing an intermediate term bottom. The 1.0950 zone remains key
for any dollar longs trying to catch a turn while 1.1250 remains the
nearest level of resistance.


AUD/USD - AUD/USD remains quagmired in the 1.7450 zone as it attempts
ot stabilize after plunging nearly 200 points over the past 2 days.
Should it hold the 1.7450 level a rally back to the 50% fibo target of
1.7550 of the most recent bear wave could well be in the cards. However,
a break below 1.7450 opens up the possibility of much greater structural
damage that could see the unit travel all the way to 1.7200.

NZD/USD - Kiwi continues its massive unwind of the 6150-6400 bull wave
from 5/19 having now broken the 61.8% fibo support line of the move. The
6400 figure proved to be formidable resistance with the pair making a
triple top at that level. Further downside action could target the
double bottom at .6150 - fully 100 points away as the only natural level
of support left for the pair.
posted at 13:19:18 on 06/02/06 - Category: Forex