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18 May                   Email to a friend


Dollar Continues To Assert Its Dominance
Yen, EuroYen and SwissYen posted the largest gains with pound and CableSwiss being
the biggest decliners....

... Canadian dollar and CAD crosses remained virtually unchanged.


EUR/USD * Euro bulls continued to lock horns with the dollar bulls as the skirmish
over the 1.2600 figure is about to escalate into all out warfare. As the dollar
bulls continue to press with their attack against the single currency positions with
neither side able to fully dominate the battlefield, euro bulls continue to rely on
a minor support at 1.2541, Mar 1, 2004 daily spike low. An intermediate support at
1.2495, a Feb 20, 2004 daily spike high, remains intact, with major support seen
1.2462, a July 19 daily high, continuing to defend the psychologically important
level at 1.2000, a start of the 1.2000-1.3667 euro rally. A break below the 1.2000
will most likely see the pair test the bids around 1.1760, a 2004 low, with a
further breakdown targeting the 1.1500 figure. In case the euro longs manage to
overpower the greenback bulls and push the pair higher, they will meet a minor
resistance at 1.2631, a 61.8 Fib of the 1.1988-1.3667, euro rally. A move deeper
into the dollar held territory will encounter an intermediate resistance at 1.2664,
a 5-day SMA, with major support currently seen at 1.2730, a Feb 7 daily spike low.
Oscillators remain mixed, with Stochastic extremely oversold on the daily chart at
9.01 and approaching the oversold line at 34.86 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is
oversold on the daily chart at 26.19 and is treading above the oversold line at
32.15 on the 4-hour chart. MACD remains below zero line on both the daily chart and
on the dealer (4HR) chart.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
1.2730 Major Feb 7 daily spike low
1.2664 Intermediate 5-day SMA
1.2631 Minor 61.8 Fib of the 1.1988-1.3667 euro rally
Level Support Details
1.2541 Minor Mar 01, 2004 daily spike low
1.2495 Intermediate Feb 20, 2004 daily spike high
1.2462 Major July 19 daily high


USD/JPY * Yen bulls retreated after their initial charge against the dollar
positions lost momentum following the failure by the JPY longs to break below the
106.50. As the greenback bulls continue to push the pair higher, they will encounter
a minor resistance at 108.06, Apr 18 minor spike high, with further advance into the
yen held territory meeting an intermediate resistance at 108.47, an Apr 12 daily
spike high. A major resistance at 108.88, a 2005 high, is a key level for the dollar
bulls to conquer, as a breakout will most likely see the pair test the offers around
the psychologically important 110.00 figure, with a sustained breakout testing yen
defenses around the 115.00 figure. As greenback forces continue to recapture
previously lost territory, their defenses are composed by the key Fibonacci levels.
Minor support is seen at 107.07, a 61.8 Fib of the Apr-May yen bull swing, an
intermediate support at 106.54, is provided by the 50.0 Fib of the 108.88 yen rally,
with major support at 105.89, established by the 38.2 Fib of the Apr-May yen bull
swing. Indicators are aligned. Stochastic is approaching the overbought line both
the daily chart at 73.23 on and at 75.73 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is also
approaching the overbought line on both the daily chart at 65.95 and at 67.57 on the
4-hour chart. MACD is slopping upward toward the zero line on the daily chart and
about to make bullish crossover above the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
108.88 Major 2005 High
108.47 Intermediate Apr 12 daily spike high
108.06 Minor Apr 18 minor spike high
Level Support Details
107.07 Minor 61.8 Fib of the Apr-May yen bull swing
106.54 Intermediate 50.0 Fib of the 108.88-104.16 yen rally
105.98 Major 38.2 Fib of the Apr-May yen bull swing

GBP/USD * Cable bulls fell back once again as their defenses crumbled under the
constant pounding from the dollar bulls. As the dollar bulls press their advance,
which by now has turned into a conquest, sterling longs have shifted their positions
and established a minor support at 1.8287, an Aug 3 daily spike high, in a bid to
slow greenback advance. An intermediate support at 1.8225, an Oct 22 daily spike low
should buy some time for the pound bulls before the rampaging dollar bulls can reach
a major support at 1.8137, an 78.6 Fib of the of the 1.7752-1.9550 cable rally. In
case the cable bulls master enough support to launch a countermove against the
dollar bulls, their initial advance will meet a minor resistance at 1.8440, a 61.8
Fib of the 1.7752-1.9550 cable rally. A further advance will encounter an
intermediate resistance at 1.8514, a 5-day SMA, with major resistance seen at
1.8595, a Mar 28 daily spike low. Oscillators are aligned. Stochastic remains
extremely oversold on the daily chart at 5.81 and is oversold at 11.87 on the dealer
(4HR) chart. RSI is oversold on both the daily chart at 22.31 on the 4-hour chart at
22.97. MACD remains below the zero line on the daily chart and is made a bullish
crossover below the zero line on the dealer chart.

Key levels

Level Resistance Details
1.8595 Major Mar 28 daily spike low
1.8514 Intermediate 5-day SMA
1.8440 Minor 61.8 Fib of the 1.7752-1.9550 cable rally
Level Support Details
1.8287 Minor Aug 3 daily spike high
1.8225 Intermediate Oct 22 daily spike low
1.8137 Major 78.6 Fib of the 1.7752-1.9550 cable rally

USD/CHF * Swissie continues to consolidate around the 2005 high as the dollar bulls
failed to mount a successful attack against the Swiss Franc positions. As the price
action became reminiscent of trench warfare with the 2005 high being a "no mans
land", dollar bulls continue to rely on a minor support at 1.2197, an Apr 14 minor
swing high. An intermediate support at 1.2146, an Apr 5 daily spike high, continues
to defend the major support at 1.2076, a 50.0 Fib of the 1.2858-1.1288 CHF rally. In
case the dollar bulls launch another offensive against the Swiss Franc positions,
they will encounter minor resistance at 1.2320, a June 8 daily spike high. A break
in initial Swissie defenses will most likely see the greenback test the intermediate
resistance at 1.2379, an Aug 16 daily low. Major resistance remains at 1.2405, an
Aug 20 daily low, remains a key target as a break above will most likely see the
pair aim for 1.2855, a start of the 1.2855-1.1276 CHF rally. Oscillators remain
mixed. Stochastic is extremely overbought on the daily chart at 89.44 and neutral at
58.16 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is overbought on the daily chart at 71.86 and
is treading below the overbought line at 60.72 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is treading
above the zero line on the daily chart and is above the zero line on the dealer
(4HR) chart.

Key levels

Level Resistance Details
1.2405 Major Aug 20 daily low
1.2379 Intermediate Aug 16 daily low
1.2320 Minor June 8 daily spike low
Level Support Details
1.2197 Minor Apr 14 minor swing high
1.2146 Intermediate Apr 5 daily spike high
1.2076 Major 50.0 Fib of the 1.2858-1.1288 Swissie rally

USD/CAD * Canadian dollar bulls managed to stop the advancing US dollar longs and
pushed back the attacking greenback forces. As the both sides continue to oppose
each other, attacking greenback longs will meet a minor resistance at 1.2733, a May
16 daily spike high. A move further will encounter an intermediate resistance at
1.2776, a Jan 5, 2004 daily spike low. A major resistance at 1.2860, a 50.0 Fib of
the 1.4000-1.1721 Loonie rally, continues to defend the psychologically important
1.3000 figure. As the greenback bulls fell back after failing to push deeper into
the Canadian dollar territory, their defense lines shifted with minor support at
1.2589, a 38.2 Fib of the June-Dec dollar rally. An intermediate support is
currently seen at 1.2560, a Feb 10 daily spike low, with major support at 1.2520, a
10-day SMA, continuing to defend the USD dollar held territory. Indicators remain
mixed. Stochastic is neutral on the daily chart at 61.13 and is approaching the
oversold line at 23.45 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is dipping below the
overbought line on the daily chart at 66.98 and is neutral at 59.21 on the 4-hour
chart. MACD made a bullish crossover above the zero line on the daily chart and made
a bearish crossover above the zero line on the dealer (4HR) charts.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
1.2860 Major 50.0 Fib of the 1.4000-1.1721 Loonie rally
1.2776 Intermediate Jan 5, 2004 daily spike low
1.2733 Minor May 16 daily spike high
Level Support Details
1.2589 Minor 38.2 Fib of the June 04- Dec 04 CAD Rally
1.2560 Intermediate Feb 10 daily spike high
1.2520 Major 10-day SMA

AUD/USD * Aussie bulls continued engage US dollar bulls in a minor skirmish with
neither side having a clear advantage. As the price action slowed to a crawl,
defensive lines on both sides remain intact with neither side managing to launch a
decisive strike. Australian dollar positions remain intact with minor support at
.7527, a Dec 16 daily spike low. An intermediate support at .7502, a 2005 low,
continues to defend the major support at .7441, a start of the .7441-.7889 Aussie
rally. In case the Australian dollar bulls launch a preemptive strike against the US
dollar positions, they will meet a minor resistance at .7608, Feb 8 daily spike low.
A further advance will encounter an intermediate resistance at .7625, an Apr 7 minor
swing low, with major resistance still intact at .7650, a 61.8 Fib of the
.7442-.7989 Aussie rally. Oscillators are alleged. Stochastic is oversold on the
daily chart at 13.86 and is dipping above the oversold line at 22.17 on the dealer
(4HR) chart. RSI is oversold line on the daily chart at 28.24 and is dipping above
the oversold line on the 4-hour chart at 33.08. MACD remains below the zero line on
the daily chart and is slopping upward toward the zero line on the dealer (4HR)
charts.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
.7650 Major 61.8 Fib of the .7442-.7989 Aussie rally
.7625 Intermediate Apr 7 minor swing low
.7608 Minor Feb 8 daily spike low
Level Support Details
.7527 Minor Dec 16 daily spike low
.7502 Intermediate 2005 Low
.7441 Major A start of the .7441-.7889 Aussie rally

NZD/USD * Kiwi failed to take flight as the pair remains confined to a tight range
with neither side managing to launch a decisive attack. As the New Zealand dollar
bulls continue to lock horns with the US dollar bulls, defense lines remain unbroken
as the stalemate continues. In case the NZD launches a counter move against the USD,
advancing Kiwi bulls will encounter a minor resistance at .7115, a 50.0 Fib of the
.6900-.7468 Kiwi rally. An intermediate resistance remains intact at .7152, Mar 31
daily spike high, with major resistance seen at .7182, a 61.8 Fib of the .6900-.7468
Kiwi rally. New Zealand dollar bulls continue to maintain their defenses with minor
support at .7046, May 16 daily low. An intermediate support at .7020, a 78.6 Fib of
the .6900-.7468 Kiwi rally currently protects the major support at .6971, a Feb 9
daily spike low. Indicators are mixed. Stochastic is approaching the oversold line
on the daily chart at 26.97 and is neutral at 36.75 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI
is treading above the oversold line on the daily chart at 31.54 and is dipping above
the oversold line at 35.36 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is slopping down toward the
zero line on the daily chart and is slopping upward toward the zero line on the
dealer (4HR) chart.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
.7182 Major 50.0 Fib of the .6900-.7466 Kiwi rally
.7152 Intermediate Mar 31 daily spike high
.7115 Minor 61.8 Fib of the .6900-.7466 Kiwi rally
Level Support Details
.7046 Minor May 16 daily low
.7020 Intermediate 78.6 Fib of the .6900-.7466 Kiwi rally
.6971 Major Feb 9 daily spike low


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posted at 08:21:06 on 05/18/05 - Category: Forex