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20 May                   Email to a friend


Dollar Defends Its Territory Against Majors
Majors lost the momentum against the US dollar and retreated across the board. Swiss
crosses remained...

... relatively unchanged with SwissYen posting moderate gains. Yen
crosses recovered some ground lost in the previous session.

EUR/USD * Euro remained in a consolidation range as the trench warfare between the
majors continued with neither side managing to push beyond the buffer zone that
separates the euro and dollar bulls. Euro longs continue to rely on minor support at
1.2613, a May 18 daily low with an intermediate support remaining intact at 1.2541,
a May 1, 2004 daily spike low. A major support at 1.2495, a Feb 20, 2004 daily spike
high continues to defend the psychologically important 1.2000 figure. In instance of
an euro bull launch an assault against the dollar positions, vanguard single
currency longs will meet a minor resistance at 1.2718, a 10-day SMA, with a breakout
encountering an intermediate resistance at 1.2786, a May 5 minor swing low. A major
resistance at 1.2830, a 50.0 Fib of the 1.2000-1.3667 euro rally, continues to
defend the psychologically important 1.3000 figure. Oscillators remain mixed.
Stochastic is extremely oversold on the daily chart at 9.11 and is neutral at 42.36
on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is dipping below the oversold line on the daily chart
at 29.68 and is neutral at 44.30 on the 4-hour chart. MACD remains below zero line
on the daily chart and is making a bearish crossover below the zero on the dealer
(4HR) chart.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
1.2830 Major 50.0 Fib of the 1.1988-1.3667 euro rally
1.2786 Intermediate May 5 minor swing low
1.2718 Minor 10-day SMA
Level Support Details
1.2613 Minor May 18 daily low
1.2541 Intermediate Mar 01, 2004 daily spike low
1.2495 Major Feb 20, 2004 daily spike high


USD/JPY * Yen bulls lost the skirmish with the dollar longs after their initial
assault failed to break below the 107.00 figure. As the greenback bulls continue to
pursue the retreating yen longs, they will encounter a minor resistance at 107.87, a
78.6 Fib of the Apr-May bull swing, a break in the initial yen defenses encountering
an intermediate resistance at 108.47, an Apr 12 daily spike high. A major resistance
at 108.88, a 2005 high, is a key target for the greenback bulls to conquer, a break
above will most likely see the dollar longs target the 110.00 figure, with a further
breakout aiming for the psychologically important 115.00 level. Following their
initial advance, greenback longs tightened their defensive positions, with minor
support at 107.08, a 61.8 Fib of the 108.88-104.16 yen rally. An intermediate
support at 106.52, a 50.0 Fib of the Apr-May bull swing, currently defends the major
support at 105.96, a 38.2 Fib of the 108.88-104.16 yen rally. Indicators are
aligned. Stochastic is overbought on both the daily chart at 83.29 and at 82.7 on
the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is treading below the overbought line on both the daily
chart at 66.38 and at 62.74 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is slopping upward toward the
zero line on the daily chart and is making a bullish crossover above the zero line
on the dealer (4HR) chart.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
108.88 Major 2005 High
108.47 Intermediate Apr 12 daily spike high
107.87 Minor 78.6 Fib of the Apr-May yen bull swing
Level Support Details
107.08 Minor 61.8 Fib of the 108.88-104.16 yen rally
106.52 Intermediate 50.0 Fib of the Apr-May bull swing
105.96 Major 38.2 Fib of the 108.88-104.16 yen rally

GBP/USD * Cable remained confined to a consolidation range the pair has remained for
the past few sessions with the price action becoming reminiscent of calm before the
storm. Defensive positions on both sides remain intact with cable bulls establishing
minor support at 1.8287, an Aug 3 daily spike high, An intermediate support at
1.8225, an Oct 22 daily spike remains intact with major support seen at 1.8137, an
78.6 Fib of the of the 1.7752-1.9550 cable rally. In case the cable bulls launch a
countermove against the dollar positions, their initial advance will meet a minor
resistance at 1.8440, a 61.8 Fib of the 1.7752-1.9550 cable rally. A further advance
will encounter an intermediate resistance at 1.8505, a Feb 10 daily spike low, with
major resistance seen at 1.8595, a Mar 28 daily spike low. Oscillators remain mixed.
Stochastic remains extremely oversold on the daily chart at 5.32 and is neutral at
43.51 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is oversold on the daily chart at 23.22 and is
neutral on the 4-hour chart at 39.32. MACD remains below the zero line on the daily
chart and is slopping upward toward the zero line on the dealer chart.

Key levels

Level Resistance Details
1.8595 Major Mar 28 daily spike low
1.8505 Intermediate Feb 10 daily spike low
1.8440 Minor 61.8 Fib of the 1.7752-1.9550 cable rally
Level Support Details
1.8287 Minor Aug 3 daily spike high
1.8225 Intermediate Oct 22 daily spike low
1.8137 Major 78.6 Fib of the 1.7752-1.9550 cable rally

USD/CHF * Swissie bulls managed to hold their ground after the brief scuffle with
the greenback bulls over the 1.2200 figure. As both sides continues to oppose each
other, defensive positions will be tested in the upcoming battle between the two
majors, with advancing dollar bulls meeting minor resistance at 1.2258, a 61.8 Fib
of the 1.2858-1.1288 Swiss Franc rally, A move further will encounter an
intermediate resistance at 1.2320, a June 8 daily spike low, wit ha sustained
breakout coming upon the major resistance at 1.2379, an Aug 16 daily low. As the
greenback longs get ready to attack the Swiss Franc positions, they will rely on a
minor support at 1.2149, a 10-day SMA. An intermediate support remains at 1.2076, a
50.0 Fib of the 1.2858-1.1288 CHF rally, with major support seen at 1.2040, 20-day
SMA. Oscillators remain mixed. Stochastic is overbought on the daily chart at 87.96
and neutral at 58.6 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is dipping below the overbought
line on the daily chart at 68.22 and is neutral at 53.88 on the 4-hour chart. MACD
is treading above the zero line on the daily chart and made a bullish crossover
above the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

Key levels

Level Resistance Details
1.2379 Major Aug 16 daily low
1.2320 Intermediate June 8 daily spike low
1.2258 Minor 61.8 Fib of the 1.2858-1.1288 Swissie rally
Level Support Details
1.2149 Minor 10-day SMA
1.2076 Intermediate 50.0 Fib of the 1.2858-1.1288 Swissie rally
1.2040 Major 20-day SMA

USD/CAD * Canadian dollar continued to consolidate around the 1.2600 figure after
pushing back attacking US dollar bulls. As both sides prepare for the upcoming
confrontation, defensive positions remain intact with greenback bulls relying on a
minor support at 1.2560, a Feb 10 daily spike high. An intermediate support at
1.2515, a 20-day SMA, continues to defend the major support at 1.2457, an Apr 29
daily spike low from further incursion by Canadian dollar bulls. As US dollar longs
plan an upcoming attack, their initial move will meet a minor resistance at 1.2666,
a May 18 daily spike high, with a further breakout encountering an intermediate
resistance at 1.2733, a May 16 daily spike high. A major resistance remains unbroken
at 1.2776, a Jan 5, 2004, daily spike high. Indicators remain mixed. Stochastic is
treading below the overbought line on the daily chart at 72.61 and is oversold at
15.39 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is neutral on both the daily chart at 59.56 at
49.86 on the 4-hour chart. MACD remains above the zero line on the daily chart and
continues to slope downward toward the zero line on the dealer (4HR) charts.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
1.2776 Major Jan 5, 2004 daily spike low
1.2733 Intermediate May 16 daily spike high
1.2666 Minor May 18 daily spike high
Level Support Details
1.2560 Minor Feb 10 daily spike high
1.2515 Intermediate 20-day SMA
1.2457 Major Apr 29 daily spike low

AUD/USD * Aussie bulls and US dollar bulls continued to stare each other down with
the pair remaining within a consolidation range. As the standoff continues,
defensive positions on both sides remain intact with greenback bulls continuing to
rely on a minor support at .7527, a Dec 16 daily spike low. An intermediate support
at .7502, a 2005 low, continues to defend the major support at .7441, a start of the
.7441-.7889 Aussie rally. In case the Australian dollar bulls decided to advance
against the US dollar bulls, they will meet a minor resistance at .7608, Feb 8 daily
spike low. A further move into the US dollar territory will encounter an
intermediate resistance at .7625, an Apr 7 minor swing low, with major resistance
remaining intact at .7650, a 61.8 Fib of the .7442-.7989 Aussie rally. Oscillators
are mixed. Stochastic remains extremely oversold on the daily chart at 10.59 and is
neutral at 50.18 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is treading above the oversold line
on the daily chart at 32.11 and is neutral on the 4-hour chart at 43.42. MACD
remains below the zero line on the daily chart and is making a bearish crossover
below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) charts.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
.7650 Major 61.8 Fib of the .7442-.7989 Aussie rally
.7625 Intermediate Apr 7 minor swing low
.7608 Minor Feb 8 daily spike low
Level Support Details
.7527 Minor Dec 16 daily spike low
.7502 Intermediate 2005 Low
.7441 Major A start of the .7441-.7889 Aussie rally

NZD/USD * New Zealand dollar longs failed to hold the psychologically important
.7100 figure, as the Kiwi bulls fell under the excessive weight of the pair. As US
dollar bulls continue to attack New Zealand dollar positions, Kiwi longs will rely
on a minor support at .7046, May 16 daily low. An intermediate support remains at
.7020, a 78.6 Fib of the .6900-.7468 Kiwi rally and continues to protect the major
support at .6971, a Feb 9 daily spike low. In case Kiwi bulls manage to fight back
and attack the US dollar positions, they will meet minor resistance .7115, a 50.0
Fib of the .6900-.7468 Kiwi rally with a move deeper into the greenback held
territory encountering an intermediate resistance at .7152, Mar 31 daily spike high.
Major resistance is currently seen at .7182, a 61.8 Fib of the .6900-.7468 Kiwi
rally. Indicators are mixed. Stochastic is oversold on the daily chart at 14.79 and
is neutral at 51.21 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI continues to tread above the
oversold line on the daily chart at 35.42 and remains neutral at 41.59 on the 4-hour
chart. MACD is crossing below the zero line on the daily chart and is about to make
a bearish crossover below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
.7203 Major 10-day SMA
.7182 Intermediate 50.0 Fib of the .6900-.7466 Kiwi rally
.7152 Minor Mar 31 daily spike high
Level Support Details
.7046 Minor May 16 daily low
.7020 Intermediate 78.6 Fib of the .6900-.7466 Kiwi rally
.6971 Major Feb 9 daily spike low


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posted at 10:30:00 on 05/20/05 - Category: Forex