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Dollar Defends Its Territory Against Majors
Majors lost the momentum against the US dollar and retreated across the board. Swiss
crosses remained... ... relatively unchanged with SwissYen posting moderate gains. Yen crosses recovered some ground lost in the previous session. EUR/USD * Euro remained in a consolidation range as the trench warfare between the majors continued with neither side managing to push beyond the buffer zone that separates the euro and dollar bulls. Euro longs continue to rely on minor support at 1.2613, a May 18 daily low with an intermediate support remaining intact at 1.2541, a May 1, 2004 daily spike low. A major support at 1.2495, a Feb 20, 2004 daily spike high continues to defend the psychologically important 1.2000 figure. In instance of an euro bull launch an assault against the dollar positions, vanguard single currency longs will meet a minor resistance at 1.2718, a 10-day SMA, with a breakout encountering an intermediate resistance at 1.2786, a May 5 minor swing low. A major resistance at 1.2830, a 50.0 Fib of the 1.2000-1.3667 euro rally, continues to defend the psychologically important 1.3000 figure. Oscillators remain mixed. Stochastic is extremely oversold on the daily chart at 9.11 and is neutral at 42.36 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is dipping below the oversold line on the daily chart at 29.68 and is neutral at 44.30 on the 4-hour chart. MACD remains below zero line on the daily chart and is making a bearish crossover below the zero on the dealer (4HR) chart. Key Levels Level Resistance Details 1.2830 Major 50.0 Fib of the 1.1988-1.3667 euro rally 1.2786 Intermediate May 5 minor swing low 1.2718 Minor 10-day SMA Level Support Details 1.2613 Minor May 18 daily low 1.2541 Intermediate Mar 01, 2004 daily spike low 1.2495 Major Feb 20, 2004 daily spike high USD/JPY * Yen bulls lost the skirmish with the dollar longs after their initial assault failed to break below the 107.00 figure. As the greenback bulls continue to pursue the retreating yen longs, they will encounter a minor resistance at 107.87, a 78.6 Fib of the Apr-May bull swing, a break in the initial yen defenses encountering an intermediate resistance at 108.47, an Apr 12 daily spike high. A major resistance at 108.88, a 2005 high, is a key target for the greenback bulls to conquer, a break above will most likely see the dollar longs target the 110.00 figure, with a further breakout aiming for the psychologically important 115.00 level. Following their initial advance, greenback longs tightened their defensive positions, with minor support at 107.08, a 61.8 Fib of the 108.88-104.16 yen rally. An intermediate support at 106.52, a 50.0 Fib of the Apr-May bull swing, currently defends the major support at 105.96, a 38.2 Fib of the 108.88-104.16 yen rally. Indicators are aligned. Stochastic is overbought on both the daily chart at 83.29 and at 82.7 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is treading below the overbought line on both the daily chart at 66.38 and at 62.74 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is slopping upward toward the zero line on the daily chart and is making a bullish crossover above the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart. Key Levels Level Resistance Details 108.88 Major 2005 High 108.47 Intermediate Apr 12 daily spike high 107.87 Minor 78.6 Fib of the Apr-May yen bull swing Level Support Details 107.08 Minor 61.8 Fib of the 108.88-104.16 yen rally 106.52 Intermediate 50.0 Fib of the Apr-May bull swing 105.96 Major 38.2 Fib of the 108.88-104.16 yen rally GBP/USD * Cable remained confined to a consolidation range the pair has remained for the past few sessions with the price action becoming reminiscent of calm before the storm. Defensive positions on both sides remain intact with cable bulls establishing minor support at 1.8287, an Aug 3 daily spike high, An intermediate support at 1.8225, an Oct 22 daily spike remains intact with major support seen at 1.8137, an 78.6 Fib of the of the 1.7752-1.9550 cable rally. In case the cable bulls launch a countermove against the dollar positions, their initial advance will meet a minor resistance at 1.8440, a 61.8 Fib of the 1.7752-1.9550 cable rally. A further advance will encounter an intermediate resistance at 1.8505, a Feb 10 daily spike low, with major resistance seen at 1.8595, a Mar 28 daily spike low. Oscillators remain mixed. Stochastic remains extremely oversold on the daily chart at 5.32 and is neutral at 43.51 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is oversold on the daily chart at 23.22 and is neutral on the 4-hour chart at 39.32. MACD remains below the zero line on the daily chart and is slopping upward toward the zero line on the dealer chart. Key levels Level Resistance Details 1.8595 Major Mar 28 daily spike low 1.8505 Intermediate Feb 10 daily spike low 1.8440 Minor 61.8 Fib of the 1.7752-1.9550 cable rally Level Support Details 1.8287 Minor Aug 3 daily spike high 1.8225 Intermediate Oct 22 daily spike low 1.8137 Major 78.6 Fib of the 1.7752-1.9550 cable rally USD/CHF * Swissie bulls managed to hold their ground after the brief scuffle with the greenback bulls over the 1.2200 figure. As both sides continues to oppose each other, defensive positions will be tested in the upcoming battle between the two majors, with advancing dollar bulls meeting minor resistance at 1.2258, a 61.8 Fib of the 1.2858-1.1288 Swiss Franc rally, A move further will encounter an intermediate resistance at 1.2320, a June 8 daily spike low, wit ha sustained breakout coming upon the major resistance at 1.2379, an Aug 16 daily low. As the greenback longs get ready to attack the Swiss Franc positions, they will rely on a minor support at 1.2149, a 10-day SMA. An intermediate support remains at 1.2076, a 50.0 Fib of the 1.2858-1.1288 CHF rally, with major support seen at 1.2040, 20-day SMA. Oscillators remain mixed. Stochastic is overbought on the daily chart at 87.96 and neutral at 58.6 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is dipping below the overbought line on the daily chart at 68.22 and is neutral at 53.88 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is treading above the zero line on the daily chart and made a bullish crossover above the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart. Key levels Level Resistance Details 1.2379 Major Aug 16 daily low 1.2320 Intermediate June 8 daily spike low 1.2258 Minor 61.8 Fib of the 1.2858-1.1288 Swissie rally Level Support Details 1.2149 Minor 10-day SMA 1.2076 Intermediate 50.0 Fib of the 1.2858-1.1288 Swissie rally 1.2040 Major 20-day SMA USD/CAD * Canadian dollar continued to consolidate around the 1.2600 figure after pushing back attacking US dollar bulls. As both sides prepare for the upcoming confrontation, defensive positions remain intact with greenback bulls relying on a minor support at 1.2560, a Feb 10 daily spike high. An intermediate support at 1.2515, a 20-day SMA, continues to defend the major support at 1.2457, an Apr 29 daily spike low from further incursion by Canadian dollar bulls. As US dollar longs plan an upcoming attack, their initial move will meet a minor resistance at 1.2666, a May 18 daily spike high, with a further breakout encountering an intermediate resistance at 1.2733, a May 16 daily spike high. A major resistance remains unbroken at 1.2776, a Jan 5, 2004, daily spike high. Indicators remain mixed. Stochastic is treading below the overbought line on the daily chart at 72.61 and is oversold at 15.39 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is neutral on both the daily chart at 59.56 at 49.86 on the 4-hour chart. MACD remains above the zero line on the daily chart and continues to slope downward toward the zero line on the dealer (4HR) charts. Key Levels Level Resistance Details 1.2776 Major Jan 5, 2004 daily spike low 1.2733 Intermediate May 16 daily spike high 1.2666 Minor May 18 daily spike high Level Support Details 1.2560 Minor Feb 10 daily spike high 1.2515 Intermediate 20-day SMA 1.2457 Major Apr 29 daily spike low AUD/USD * Aussie bulls and US dollar bulls continued to stare each other down with the pair remaining within a consolidation range. As the standoff continues, defensive positions on both sides remain intact with greenback bulls continuing to rely on a minor support at .7527, a Dec 16 daily spike low. An intermediate support at .7502, a 2005 low, continues to defend the major support at .7441, a start of the .7441-.7889 Aussie rally. In case the Australian dollar bulls decided to advance against the US dollar bulls, they will meet a minor resistance at .7608, Feb 8 daily spike low. A further move into the US dollar territory will encounter an intermediate resistance at .7625, an Apr 7 minor swing low, with major resistance remaining intact at .7650, a 61.8 Fib of the .7442-.7989 Aussie rally. Oscillators are mixed. Stochastic remains extremely oversold on the daily chart at 10.59 and is neutral at 50.18 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI is treading above the oversold line on the daily chart at 32.11 and is neutral on the 4-hour chart at 43.42. MACD remains below the zero line on the daily chart and is making a bearish crossover below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) charts. Key Levels Level Resistance Details .7650 Major 61.8 Fib of the .7442-.7989 Aussie rally .7625 Intermediate Apr 7 minor swing low .7608 Minor Feb 8 daily spike low Level Support Details .7527 Minor Dec 16 daily spike low .7502 Intermediate 2005 Low .7441 Major A start of the .7441-.7889 Aussie rally NZD/USD * New Zealand dollar longs failed to hold the psychologically important .7100 figure, as the Kiwi bulls fell under the excessive weight of the pair. As US dollar bulls continue to attack New Zealand dollar positions, Kiwi longs will rely on a minor support at .7046, May 16 daily low. An intermediate support remains at .7020, a 78.6 Fib of the .6900-.7468 Kiwi rally and continues to protect the major support at .6971, a Feb 9 daily spike low. In case Kiwi bulls manage to fight back and attack the US dollar positions, they will meet minor resistance .7115, a 50.0 Fib of the .6900-.7468 Kiwi rally with a move deeper into the greenback held territory encountering an intermediate resistance at .7152, Mar 31 daily spike high. Major resistance is currently seen at .7182, a 61.8 Fib of the .6900-.7468 Kiwi rally. Indicators are mixed. Stochastic is oversold on the daily chart at 14.79 and is neutral at 51.21 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI continues to tread above the oversold line on the daily chart at 35.42 and remains neutral at 41.59 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is crossing below the zero line on the daily chart and is about to make a bearish crossover below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart. Key Levels Level Resistance Details .7203 Major 10-day SMA .7182 Intermediate 50.0 Fib of the .6900-.7466 Kiwi rally .7152 Minor Mar 31 daily spike high Level Support Details .7046 Minor May 16 daily low .7020 Intermediate 78.6 Fib of the .6900-.7466 Kiwi rally .6971 Major Feb 9 daily spike low www.dailyfx.com
posted at 10:30:00 on 05/20/05
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Category: Forex
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