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06 June                   Email to a friend


Dollar Bull Is About To Lose Its Horns
Dollar retreats across the board,Antipodeans lead the charge against greenback,Yen crosses begin to slide again,Dollar...

... fails to maintain its momentum and relinquished some of its gains to the majors

EUR/USD * Euro bulls are finally getting a chance to exalt their revenge upon the
greenback bulls as the dollar long lost momentum when the pair approached the 1.2150
level. As the euro bulls finally getting their chance to take back some of the
territory lost to the dollar, their advance will most likely will be capped by the
1.2700-30 range a strong resistance which marked the previous 2005 low. Also traders
should expect quiet a few exotic option strike barriers to be placed around the
1.2500 figure, making it a perfect target for the institutional traders to aim for.
Indicators signal a maturing trend with ADX (DMI) on the daily chart is at 38.55.
Stochastic remains extremely oversold on the daily chart at 9.05, which is
indicative of a strong trend. The Stochastic on the dealer (4HR) chart is neutral at
38.36. RSI is extremely oversold on the daily chart at 19.17 with the 4-hour chart
RSI neutral at 44.33. MACD remains deep below the zero line on both the daily chart
and is slopping upward toward the zero line on the dealer 4(HR) chart. In case the
reversal fails greenback longs will most likely resume their advance and push the
pair toward the psychologically important 1.2000 figure.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
1.2393 Major 23.6 Fib of the 1.3129-1.2165 dollar rally
1.2342 Intermediate June 3 daily spike high
1.2293 Minor 5-day SMA
Level Support Details
1.2163 Minor June 1 daily spike low
1.2124 Intermediate Sep 20 daily spike low
1.2027 Major Sep 8 daily spike low


USD/JPY * Japanese Yen traders managed to take the upper hand in the latest chapter
of the yen versus the dollar saga and pushed the dollar below the 108.00 figure. As
the yen continues to retrace the latest move made by the greenback, traders should
expect the price action to heat up around the 107.00 figure as the break below, will
most likely see the pair aim for 106.00, a logical place to find a number of large
institutional exotic option barriers. Indicators signal trend reversal, with ADX
(DMI) dropping to 25.6. Stochastic is slopping downward above the overbought line on
the daily chart at 83.17, supporting a view that a trend might be weakening. The
Stochastic on the 4-hour chart is treading below the oversold line at 14.57, thus
providing dollar bulls with a chance to mount a counterattack. RSI is neutral at
54.29 on the daily chart, with dealer (4HR) chart RSI slopping downward toward the
oversold line at 39.14. MACD is making a bearish crossover above the zero line on
the daily chart, with MACD on the 4-hour chart crossing below the zero line. If the
yen bulls retreat, a move to the upside will most likely see the USD/JPY rocket
through 109.00 and target the 110.00 figure, with a breakout targeting the 115.00.

Key Levels
Level Resistance Details
108.88 Major 2005 high
108.55 Intermediate Apr 15 daily spike high
108.11 Minor 5-day SMA
Level Support Details
107.06 Minor 38.2 Fib of the May-Jun dollar bull swing
106.75 Intermediate May 18 minor swing low
106.51 Major 50.0 Fib of the 104.17-108.85 USD rally

GBP/USD * British pound bulls turned into bulldogs and chased the dollar longs
toward the 1.8200 figure, as a break above will most likely see a clear sailing for
the cable traders all the way up to the 1.8500 figure, a land of numerous large
institutional stops and big exotic option barriers. But the break above the 1.8500
handle will most likely be capped by a long-term resistance, marked by the previous
2005 low. Indicators signal maturing trend with ADX (DMI) at 44.26. The Stochastic
on the daily chart remains oversold at 10.32, giving the sterling longs plenty of
room to maneuver. The dealer (4HR) chart stochastic is neutral at 46.55. RSI is
oversold on the daily chart at 21.23 and is neutral at 52.87 on the 4-hour chart.
MACD is making a bullish crossover below the zero line and is slopping upward toward
the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart. In case the cable longs fail to make a
further advance, dollar traders should expect the cable to tumble below the 1.8000
figure.

Key levels

Level Resistance Details
1.8345 Major 23.6 Fib of the Apr-May dollar rally
1.8290 Intermediate May 18 daily low
1.8212 Minor 10-day SMA
Level Support Details
1.8076 Minor 2005 Low
1.8035 Intermediate Sep 14 daily spike high
1.79.25 Major Oct 19 daily spike low

USD/CHF * Swiss Franc bulls forgot about neutrality and charged the dollar positions
headlong, thus pushing the pair further away from the 1.2500 figure. As the pair
continues to tumble, Swssie longs have set their sights on the 1.2200 handle as a
break below will most likely see the CHF retrace the dollar's advance all the way to
1.2000 figure. Indicators are signaling trending conditions with ADX (DMI) at 31.33.
Stochastic on the daily chart remains extremely overbought at 88.92. The Stochastic
on the 4-hour chart is neutral at 46.65. RSI is overbought on the daily chart at
76.03 and is neutral at 50.1 on the dealer (4HR) chart. MACD remains above the zero
line on the daily chart and continues to slopping downward toward the zero line on
the 4-hour chart, In case the Swissie bulls are forced to retreat by the greenback
longs, dollar traders should expect the pair to break above the 1.2600 and aim for
1.3000 figure.

Key levels

Level Resistance Details
1.2684 Major Oct 6 daily spike high
1.2661 Intermediate Oct 13 daily spike high
1.2597 Minor June 1 daily spike high
Level Support Details
1.2446 Minor June 3 daily spike low
1.2401 Intermediate 10-day SMA
1.2361 Minor May 20 daily high

USD/CAD * Canadian dollar bulls continued to charge the greenback positions and
succeeded in pushing the pair below the 1.2500. Loonie traders should remain well
supported as long as the oil prices continue to trade above the $55 a barrel, with
the latest price action in the crude aiming for $56 barrel, with subsequent breakout
targeting the $58 mark. In case the oil makes a run for$ 58, Canadian dollar bulls
will most likely aim for 1.2400, with a breakdown taking out the support at 1.2300
and push their way to 1.2200. Indicators are signaling a broken trend with ADX
(DMI) falling to 22.41. The Stochastic on the daily chart is slopping downward at
34.00, giving the CAD longs further room to maneuver. The 4-hour chart Stochastic is
neutral at 55.08. RSI remains neutral at 44.84 on the daily chart with the dealer
(4HR) chart RSI also neutral at 43.41. MACD is slopping downward toward the zero
line on the daily chart and is slopping upward toward the zero line on the 4-hour
chart.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
1.2631 Major May 31 daily high
1.2556 Intermediate 23.6 Fib of the 1.1984-1.1.2733 USD rally
1.2506 Minor 5-day SMA
Level Support Details
1.2453 Minor June 3 daily spike high
1.2356 Intermediate 50.0 Fib of the Mar-May greenback rally
1.2302 Major Apr 24 daily spike low

AUD/USD * Australian dollar bulls managed to make their way toward the .7600 figure,
a copper prices staged a strong rally, not seen since February. As the copper prices
continue to set the new multi year highs, with the last print seen at $1.5575 a
pound, a move toward the $1.6000 handle, will most likely see add strength to the
Aussie momentum with the pair aiming for the .7700 figure. A move above will most
likely be capped by the channels upper boundary at .7720 and the unsustainably of
the rally in the copper market, which should top out around $ 1.6050 a pound.
Indicators are signaling a reversal in a trend with ADX (DMI) rising to 24.97. The
daily Stochastic is treading above the oversold line at 27.65 with the 4-hour
Stochastic approaching overbought line at 70.24. RSI is neutral on the daily at
42.17 and neutral on the (4HR) chart RSI at 60.00. MACD made a bearish crossover
below the zero line on the daily chart and is crossing above the zero line on the
4-hour chart. In case the AUD dollar bulls fail to make a move against the USD
dollar and are forced to retreat, a move to the downside will most likely see the
pair test the .7400 figure.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
.7671 Major 38.2 Fib of the Mar-May greenback rally
.7648 Intermediate May 26 daily spike high
.7595 Minor 23.6 Fib of the .7889-.7474 USD rally
Level Support Details
.7530 Minor June 3 daily spike low
.7474 Intermediate 2005 Low
.7445 Major Dec 10 daily spike low

NZD/USD * New Zealand dollar managed to post gains against the US dollar as the Kiwi
tried to fly once again after regaining the psychologically important .7000 figure.
As the NZD traders gear up to take back some of the territory previously lost to the
US dollar longs, a move to the upside will most likely be capped by the a resistance
at .7100. A break out will most likely see the pair aim for the .7200 figure.
Indicators point to a growing trend with ADX (DMI) rising to 27.94. The daily
Stochastic is treading below the oversold line at 18.41 with 4-hour chart Stochastic
neutral at 49.89. RSI is treading along the oversold line at 32.88 on the daily
chart and is neutral at 51.46 on the dealer (4HR) chart. MACD remains below the zero
line on the daily chart and is slopping upward toward the zero line on the 4-hour
chart. In case the US dollar bulls fail to hold of the advance by the New Zealand
dollar bulls their retreat might see the pair test the offers at .7250 level.

Key Levels

Level Resistance Details
.7104 Major 20-day SMA
.7073 Intermediate 10-day SMA
.7082 Minor 23.6 Fib of the .7377-.6950 USD rally
Level Support Details
.6977 Minor June 3 daily low
.6951 Intermediate June 1 daily low
.6928 Major Jan 12 daily low

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posted at 08:14:54 on 06/06/05 - Category: Forex