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Dollar Launches Surprise Move Against Majors
Australian Dollar Regains Lost Territory,Euro remains quiet after retreat,Cable pushes the US dollar back,Dollar launched...
... a surprised attack against the majors and recaptured significant amount of territory from the majors. EUR/USD * Euro bulls fell back after the dollar longs sprung a trap on the unsuspecting euro traders with the pair spiraling down over a 100 pips. As the price action continues to heat up, euro bulls found themselves almost where they have started the retrace against the dollar. As the struggle continues euro traders will most likely try to push the pair toward the 1.2500 figure in the latest attempt to regain some of the territory previously lost to the greenback bulls. A move to the upside will most likely be capped by the major resistance at 1.2500, which is marked by the 2004 summer range high. Indicators signal a maturing trend with ADX (DMI) on the daily chart is at 45.8. Stochastic is treading above oversold on the daily chart at 18.02, which is indicative of a strong trend. The Stochastic on the dealer (4HR) chart is neutral at 42.15. RSI is treading above oversold on the daily chart at 31.51 with the 4-hour chart RSI neutral at 40.99. MACD remains deep below the zero line on the daily chart and is sloping downward below the zero line on the dealer 4(HR) chart. In case the reversal fails greenback longs will most likely resume their advance and push the pair toward the psychologically important 1.2000 figure. Key Levels Level Resistance Details 1.2468 Major 20-day SMA 1.2393 Intermediate 23.6 Fib of the 1.3129-1.2165 dollar rally 1.2342 Minor June 3 daily spike high Level Support Details 1.2204 Minor June 8 daily low 1.2163 Intermediate June 1 daily spike low 1.2124 Major Sep 20 daily spike low USD/JPY * Japanese Yen traders where stunned after the dollar bulls managed to push the pair above the 107.00 figure, but lost momentum with the dollar advance stalling around the 107.50 level. As the pair continues to seesaw around the 107.00 handle, a successful move by the yen bulls will most likely see the pair make another attempt to reach the 106.00 figure. A break below the 106.00 might see the yen longs test the bids around the 104.00 figure, thus establishing a triple bottom formation. Indicators signal trend reversal, with ADX (DMI) dropping to 22.35. Stochastic is sloping downward on the daily chart at 26.00, supporting a view that a trend might be weakening. The Stochastic on the 4-hour chart is treading below the overbought line at 66.21, thus providing dollar bulls with a chance to mount a counterattack. RSI is neutral at 49.34 on the daily chart, with dealer (4HR) chart RSI sloping upward above the oversold line at 49.34. MACD is making a bearish crossover above the zero line on the daily chart, with MACD on the 4-hour chart making a bullish crossover below the zero line. If the yen bulls retreat, a move to the upside will most likely see the USD/JPY rocket through 109.00 and target the 110.00 figure, with a breakout targeting the 115.00. Key Levels Level Resistance Details 108.27 Major May 26 daily spike high 107.74 Intermediate 23.6 Fib of the 104.17-108.85 USD rally 107.44 Minor June 3 daily spike low Level Support Details 106.51 Minor 50.0 Fib of the 104.17-108.85 USD rally 105.96 Intermediate 61.8 Fib of the 104.17-108.85 USD rally 105.35 Major May 10 daily low GBP/USD * British pound longs were on the receiving end of the dollar advance as greenback bulls managed to thwart the latest advance by the cable bulls. Pound traders once again were denied the access to the 1.8500 figure by the dollar traders as the pair only briefly touched the 1.8400 figure and tumbled like a rock. Unfortunately for the dollar bulls the latest retreat by the sterling only solidified the 1.8200 figure as a major support, following the failure by the greenback traders to break the large channel that encased the price action since the beginning on 2005. The next face-off between two sides will decide who will dominate the near term price action, with pound currently a favored contender due to the dollar overextending the latest trend. Indicators signal maturing trend with ADX (DMI) at 47.46. The Stochastic on the daily chart is neutral at 50.22, giving the sterling longs plenty of room to maneuver. The dealer (4HR) chart Stochastic is neutral at 51.21. RSI is neutral at 42.35 on the daily chart and is neutral at 52.15 on the 4-hour chart. MACD is making a bullish crossover below the zero line on the daily chart and is making a bearish crossover above the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart. In case the cable longs fail to make a further advance, dollar traders should expect the cable to tumble below the 1.8000 figure. Key levels Level Resistance Details 1.8599 Major May 12 daily spike low 1.8511 Intermediate 38.2 Fib of the Apr-May dollar rally 1.8434 Minor May 19 daily spike high Level Support Details 1.8212 Minor 10-day SMA 1.8111 Intermediate June 5 daily low 1.8035 Major Sep 14 Daily spike high USD/CHF * Swiss Franc fell pray to the latest ploy by the dollar bulls and retreated well above the 1.2500 figure, but managedto stop the advancing greenback longs before the pair reached 1.2600 figure. Currently the fight between tow majors is beginning to escalate as to the winner go the spoils so does the domination of the price action. Given the strong resistance encountered by the dollar longs around the 1.2600 mark, Swiss Franc traders should muster enough strength to push the dollar bulls toward the 1.2400 figure, but will most likely stop short of 1.2250 as it act as a long-term support for the greenback. Indicators are signaling trending conditions with ADX (DMI) at 33.85. Stochastic on the daily chart is currently treading below the overbought line at 79.6. The Stochastic on the 4-hour chart is neutral at 62.07. RSI remains below the overbought line on the daily chart at 65.8 and is neutral at 61.7 on the dealer (4HR) chart. MACD remains above the zero line on the daily chart and is making a bearish crossover while it is making a bullish crossover at the zero line on the 4-hour chart, In case the Swissie bulls are forced to retreat by the greenback longs, dollar traders should expect the pair to break above the 1.2600 and aim for 1.3000 figure. Key levels Level Resistance Details 1.2707 Major June 16,2004 daily spike high 1.2661 Intermediate Oct 13 daily spike high 1.2597 Minor June 1 daily spike high Level Support Details 1.2454 Minor 10-day SMA 1.2359 Intermediate 20-day SMA 1.2256 Minor 61.8 Fib of the Sep-Dec CHF rally USD/CAD * Canadian dollar was down but not out as US dollar traders pushed the pair above the 1.2500 handle, but stumbled and lost momentum just above the figure. As the pair remains suspended above the 1.2500 figure, the next move by the Loone bulls will most likely see the pair test the US dollar bids around the 1.2360 with a sustained momentum touching the 1.2300 figure. Indicators are signaling a broken trend with ADX (DMI) falling to 15.3. The Stochastic on the daily chart is breaking the oversold line from below at 19.75, giving the CAD longs further room to maneuver. The 4-hour chart Stochastic is neutral at 58.39. RSI remains neutral at 49.50 on the daily chart with the dealer (4HR) chart RSI also neutral at 56.74. MACD is sloping downward toward the zero line on the daily chart and is sloping upward below the zero line on the (4HR) chart. Key Levels Level Resistance Details 1.2675 Major May 20 daily high 1.2631 Intermediate May 31 daily high 1.2556 Minor 23.6 Fib of the 1.1984-1.1.2733 USD rally Level Support Details 1.2421 Minor June 7 daily spike low 1.2356 Intermediate 50.0 Fib of the Mar-May greenback rally 1.2302 Major Apr 24 daily spike low AUD/USD * Australian dollar traders put up a good fight against the counterattacking greenback with the Aussie traders managing to hold the .7650 level. As the price action continues to favor the AUD traders, next assault on the .7700 handle will most likely see the Australian dollar bulls push the pair toward the .7750 level with a sustained momentum seeing the AUD/USD touching the .7800 figure. Indicators are signaling a reversal in a trend with ADX (DMI) rising to 20.76. The daily Stochastic is racing towards overbought line at 79.9 while the 4-hour Stochastic neutral at 58.91. RSI is neutral on the daily chart at 52.88 and is also neutral on the (4HR) chart RSI at 59.67. MACD made a bullish crossover below the zero line on the daily chart and has made a bearish crossover above the zero line on the 4-hour chart. In case the AUD dollar bulls fail to make a move against the USD dollar and are forced to retreat, a move to the downside will most likely see the pair test the .7400 figure. Key Levels Level Resistance Details .7792 Major 61.8 Fib of the Mar-May greenback rally .7732 Intermediate 50.0 Fib of the .7889-.7474 USD rally .7707 Minor May 9 daily spike low Level Support Details .7668 Minor June 7 daily low . 7595 Intermediate 23.6 Fib of the Mar-May greenback rally .7530 Major June 3 daily spike low NZD/USD * New Zealand dollar bulls were stunned by the ferocity of the US dollar attack, but quickly recovered and pushed the pair back toward the .7150 level. As the pair remains suspended in the .7100-50 zone, a move to the upside will most likely see the Kiwi trader's test the USD offers around the .7200 figure .A move above will most likely be capped at .7350 thus establishing a double top resistance. Indicators point to a slowing trend with ADX (DMI) falling to 22.58. The daily Stochastic is neutral at 66.11 with 4-hour chart Stochastic also neutral at 68.78. RSI is neutral at 51.08 on the daily chart as well as on the dealer (4HR) chart at 61.00. MACD has made a bullish crossover below the zero line on the daily chart and has climbed above the zero line on the 4-hour chart. In case the NZD bulls fail to breach the .7200 figure and fall back, the next level they will most likely find some support will be .6950. Key Levels Level Resistance Details .7251 Major May 10 spike low .7213 Intermediate 61.8 Fib of the .7377-.6950 USD rally .7193 Minor May 13 daily spike high Level Support Details .7088 Minor 20-day SMA .7050 Intermediate 23.6 Fib of the .7377-.6950 USD rally .7016 Major June 6 daily low www.dailyfx.com
posted at 07:01:23 on 06/09/05
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Category: Forex
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