Dollar Powers Back After The Holidays
By DailyFX -USDJPY – Dollar Bulls Charge Back.Dollar strength stemmed from a better than expected consumer confidence report and durable goods orders data as traders… … reinitiated long
greenback positions.
Reversing yesterday's decline, the price action
was contrary to rather upbeat data in the Japanese economy and
suggestive that interest rates remain the overall concern of the
market.
Uptick Data In Japan
Industrial production disappointed to the downside as the world's
second largest economy experienced a measly 0.6 percent rise in output
for the month. This now places the annualized figure at 3 percent,
considerably lower than economists had previously expected. However,
workers' household spending, remained buoyant, rising 1.2 percent
compared to expectations of a 0.5 percent climb. On the flip side of
the money supply cycle, firms remained optimistic of future and current
conditions. The small business confidence report for the month of
November ticked slightly higher to 50.9 compared to the earlier
month's print of 50.
Technically Speaking
Breaking out for a second time in two weeks, the price action looks
ripe for further upside as the flag formation fails to hold. Bouncing
off of 118.45 (50% fib from the monthly move), the current bull run
looks to be tested at the 120 psychologial resistance, a level which
held last week on a push higher. A failure at the 120 may result in a
full retrace to the 50 fib once again with a break above suggestive of
an imminent test of 121.
GBPUSD
Where's The Inflation
With housing data suggesting a further bottom and credit data mostly
inline, today's retrace resembles nothing short of seling into rallies
as bears reinitiated short positions following the temporary spike.
This theme looks to persist over the next week or so continuing on
speculation that the Bank of England will likely opt to cut the
repurchase rate in the near future as consumer spending remains weak.
Readers will also remember the lowered growth forecasts published by
policy makers previously along with a more tepid inflationary picture
that has contributed extensively to the downward pressure. As a result,
with the interest rate differential imminently narrowed further selling
pressure is expected until an upside catalyst is presented in the form
of either an uptick in spending or sparks of inflationary pressure.
Technically Speaking
Previously bouncing off of the 1.7055 figure, the British pound major
has tested significant resistance at the 38.2 percent fib level form the
most recent bear wave. Since then, bears have pounded the sterling to
break below 1.7221 (23.6% fib level from the monthly move) with an
imminent retest of the aforementioned floor.
NZDUSD
Commodities Higher
Although spurred by the previously mentioned upbeat economic data in
the U.S., the overall upward momentum for the Kiwi dollar major currency
remains intact. Bolstering the notion has been recently soaring
commodity prices. Platinum contracts traded slightly above the $1,000
mark, a 25 year high, as gold bullion additionally broke through its
ceiling at $500, if only briefly. With base metals rising higher and
higher, copper is now 45 percent higher compared to a year ago, the
commodity bloc currencies look to be the prime beneficiaries.
Additionally, potential further increases in the region's overnight
cash rate look to boost the currency in the short run. With
inflationary pressures still looming in the economy, central bankers
look to prevent the forecasted 3.1 percent pressure going into 2006.
Ultimately, this may be a short retrace in an otherwise larger upward
rise.
Technically Speaking
Retracing afer the overall bounce off of the 0.6850 support figure, the
single currency is consolidating on 0.6993 (23.6% fib level from the
monthly move) and looks ripe for further upside potential. The less
than shapely spinning top lends to further notions of a push higher as
the current selling pressure dissipates. As a result, a break below at
this current rate would signal a partial retracement to the 0.6944 level
(38.2% fib level), inline with previous consolidation.
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