By DailyFX – EUR/JPY* Not much has changed regarding the outlook for EUR/JPY from a week ago.The pair trades along and is supported by its… … 10 day SMA.

The weekly close above
the 12/12 high of 143.59 is encouraging for bulls and increases the likelihood of
the symmetrical triangle playing out as a bullish continuation pattern. The next
step for bulls is a break of the 144.87 4/6 high which would pave the way for a test
of 146.88 * the 161.8% fibo of the March to June 2005 downward move. However, a
reversal to the downside is possible as the pair trades at its upper Bollinger band
on the weekly and is accompanied by the imposing long upper wick from the candle
that ended on 4/7. The 4/7 reaction low at 142.69 serves as buyers first level of
defense with additional support coming in at the 20 SMA / 50% fibo of 139.71-144.87
at 142.20/30. A break below supporting trendline near 140.80 is required in order
to negate the bullishness stemming from the ascending triangle on the weekly.

EUR/CHF * We became negative last week on this pair as we mentioned that “daily
oscillators convey bearishness with negative MACD and stochastic crosses and CCI
crossing below 100 and now close to 0″ and that “the proximity of the 1.5853 high at
the double top results in high multiple reward to risk ratios”. EUR/CHF declined
for the second consecutive week and its massive divergence with oscillators on the
weekly is now accompanied with a head and shoulders reversal on the hourly / dealer
charts. Currently resisted by the 23.6% fibo of 1.5853-1.5694 at 1.5731, a break
above there would target the 38.2% fibo at 1.5754. A daily close above the right
shoulder high of 1.5780 would negate the reversal pattern and its bearish
implications. If the reversal to the downside plays out, then look for support at
the 38.2% fibo of 1.5407-1.5853 at 1.5683 with a break exposing the 3/16 low of
1.5627.

EUR/GBP * EUR/GBP also fell last week and remains contained within its large
symmetrical triangle that began in June 2003. Daily oscillators are overwhelmingly
bearish with a recent negative MACD cross and RSI falling from overbought territory.
Hourly oscillators are bearish as well with RSI and slow stochastic declining from
overbought levels. Look for any strength to run into resistance at the 38.2% fibo
of .7020-.6897 at .6944 with additional gains possibly testing the 50% fibo at
.6958. Support comes in at the confluence of the 50% fibo of .6789-.7021 / Friday's
low at .6987/.6804. A break below sees a possible assault on the 3/28 low of .6868.

Jamie Saettele
Forex Capital Markets LLC
New York, NY 10005
Tel (212) 897-7660
Fax (212) 897-7669
Toll Free 888-503-6739
jsaettele@dailyfx.com
By DailyFX