By DailyFX – EUR/JPY * The euro weakened against the Yen for the 3rd consecutive week and currently trades near the 76.4% fibo of 139.72-145.50… … at 141.09.

Oscillators are bearish as evidenced by negative MACD sloping down and negative momentum but caution
is warranted as CCI has crossed above -100. While a reading below 0 is bearish, a
cross above -100 is an early warning sign that momentum is slowing. This assessment
would correlate with either continued consolidation or a slower decline than the one
from 145.50. Potential wave count places wave 1 at 145.50-141.17. Extensions of
wave 1 (145.50-141.47) by factors of 1.382 and 1.618 project possible ends of wave 3
(144.73-?) at 139.12 and 138.17. More immediate support is defined by the 38.2%
fibo of 130.59-145.50 at 139.80. Resistance stems from the 23.6% fibo of
145.50-141.02 at 142.07 as well as Friday's high at 142.41.

EUR/CHF * We remarked last Monday that “Fibonacci extensions of wave 1
(1.5853-1.5632) from the top of wave 2/beginning of wave 3 (1.5821) target 1.5517
(1.5821 * 138.2% * (1.5853-1.5632)) and 1.5464 (1.5821 * 161.8% * (1.5853-1.5632)).”
With the pair reaching the projected 1.5460 level after Friday's 113 pip decline,
it is possible that we have entered into a corrective wave 4. Resistance rests at
the confluence of the 23.6% fibo of 1.5852-1.5462 / 5/11 low at 1.5553/54. Current
price is supported by a long term trendline dating to November 2004 lows. Improving
the long term bearish picture is the fact that the pair has crossed below the 200
day SMA.

EUR/GBP * EUR/GBP has traded to its 138.2% extension of wave 1 (.7020-.6888) to
.6798. This combined with yesterday's hammer on the daily suggests that the pair
may digest some of the recent losses. Resistance stems from the 23.6% and 38.2%
fibos of .7020-.6798 at .6850 and .6882. In the event of continued weakness, the
161.8% extension (.6980-161.8% * (.7020-.6888)) comes in at .6767 as additional
support. Current price is supported by a trendline dating to June 2005 but a daily
close below favors shorts.

Jamie Saettele
Technical Currency Analyst
Forex Capital Markets LLC
New York, NY 10005
Tel (212) 897-7660
Fax (212) 897-7669
Toll Free 888-503-6739
jsaettele@dailyfx.com