By DailyFX – EURJPY * The euro has gained against the Yen the last 4 days but sits right at a downward sloping trendline from… … 4/20. Since then, the pair has traded within a well defined downward sloping channel.

A bounce lower encounters support within the
channel at the 38.2% fibo of 140.19-143.74 at 142.39 and the 61.8% fibo at 141.56.
The proximity of the resisting trendline limits the risk to the upside. . However,
with daily oscillators bullish (rising MACD, RSI, CCI), a break above could lead to
a breakout and eventual test of the 5/8 high at 144.73.

EURCHF * The pair has consolidated recent losses, trading in a 3 wave flat and
topping out at 1.5568 on Friday. The 200 day SMA rests just above current price at
1.5547 and is initial resistance. The hourly chart shows that EUR/CHF is
approaching a short term supporting trendline 1.5500 and a break below would expose
the 1.5448 low on Thursday. Continued weakness would suggest that a 5th wave is
underway with resistance at the 1/6 low of 1.5408 and ultimately 1.5347 * a figure
suggested by subtracting the length of wave 1 (1.5853-1.5632) from the top of wave 4
(1.5568). This is known as wave equality.

EUR/GBP * The euro has recovered some of its recent losses against the British
Pound, but hourly oscillators show that momentum to the upside is slowing. The pair
has faced resistance the last two days by the 10 day SMA at .6810 and the 23.6% fibo
of .6980-.6752 at .6806. Bolstering the bearish argument is the break of a long
term trendline on the weekly from 6/24/2005. A break below the 5/17 low at .6752
opens the door for another decline. Friday’s high of .6817 must hold to keep the
picture bearish. A rally through there probes the 38.2% fibo of .6980-.6752 at
.6839.

Jamie Saettele
Technical Currency Analyst
Forex Capital Markets LLC
New York, NY 10005
Tel (212) 897-7660
Fax (212) 897-7669
Toll Free 888-503-6739
jsaettele@dailyfx.com