EURUSD – The hourly channel continues to hold up, which does not inspire much confidence in the bearish bias. That, and the fact that… … this mornings decline is in just 3 waves, increases upside risk.

However, the longer term bearish structure (where we are looking for a C
wave to come under 1.2865) remains in place as long as 1.3262 remains
intact. A break under 1.3188 would bolster the bearish case.

USDJPY – The USDJPY rally has stalled at the 61.8% of 118.51-115.76 at
117.46 (also the 200 day SMA at 117.63). However, 5 short term waves up
from 115.76 indicates bullish potential. Short term support is at
117.01 (todays low), and a break above 117.60 gives scope to 118.51.
If 118.51 holds, then a triangle may be forming. In order to
consolidate the sharp drop from 121.66, a triangle scenario is certainly
possible.

GBPUSD – Cable remains in corrective mode (consolidating the
1.9675-1.9184 decline). Yesterdays sharp rally is indicative of a C
wave, which is the final wave in a 3 wave correction. A push above
1.9436 would complete the pattern and give way to a decline that comes
under 1.9184. The A and C legs of the correction would be equal at
1.9465 and the 61.8% of 1.9675-1.9184 is at 1.9486. That, level,
1.9465/86 is where we are looking for a top in Cable.

USDCHF – We mentioned yesterday that 5 wave decline is evident from
1.2357 to 1.2213, meaning that the larger trend is now down. The
USDCHF is rolling over from current price, which is the 38.2% of
1.2358-1.2104 at 1.2200. Coming under 1.2157 increases confidence in a
bearish outcome and decline below 1.2104. Short term resistance is at
the 61.8% of 1.2358-1.2104 at 1.2261.

USDCAD – We are suspending the longer term bearish outlook due to the
impulsive rally off of 1.1679. We wrote yesterday that the fact that
this decline has yet to accelerate lower and the bullish divergence with
RSI on the hourly are both causes for concern and a bounce to 1.1739 or
higher is suggested near term by the 5 waves down from 1.1820. A small
5 wave rally from 1.1679 to 1.1765 is evident with the chop lower
undoubtedly corrective. Price is now likely to exceed 1.1879 is a 3rd
wave and target the 1.2000 figure (61.8% of 1.2734-1.0927 at 1.2041) in
coming weeks. Then, we will look for the BIG turn lower. Remaining
above 1.1679 keeps the outlook intact.

AUDUSD – The AUD/USD continues to work higher. Bearish RSI divergence
on the hourly is disconcerting to bulls but only a break below .7797
suggests additional bearish potential. Short term support is at todays
low at .7839. A rally above .7897 brings .7950 into focus.

NZDUSD – Kiwis bounce from the short term trendline (drawn off of the
3/6 and 3/7 lows) has extended through the 3/13 low at .6918, which
dampens the near term bearish outlook. Still, price is holding below
the 20 day SMA, which is just above current price at .6945. Another
test of trendline support could lead to a break and new lows below
.6719. .6991 is resistance.

Jamie Saettele
Technical Currency Analyst
Forex Capital Markets LLC
New York, NY 10005
Tel (212) 897-7660
Fax (212) 897-7669
Toll Free 888-503-6739
jsaettele@dailyfx.com