By DailyFX – AUDCAD – The AUDCAD rally from .9053 looks like the 5th wave in a 5 wave sequence that began in June 2006… … at .8123.

The long term trend is up as evidenced by the 3 wave decline from 1.0551-.8123 from February
2004 to June 2006. This strongly suggests that the rally from .8123 is
just the first wave in a larger 5 wave rally that will eventually carry
above 1.0551. Near term, we are looking for a correction in a second
wave to test the February low at .9053 (at least) before the next leg
up.

AUDJPY – The AUDJPY may be in the early stages of weakness but a break
below trendline support drawn off of the 3/14 and 3/28 lows is required
before we can confidently get bearish against the 4/17 high of 100.02.
The rally from 88.48 is in 5 waves with an extended 5th wave (which
itself appears to be in 5 waves). Extended 5th waves are often fully
retraced, so we are looking for a move back to 93.79 on a sustained
break of aforementioned trendline support. Both RSI and CCI have rolled
over from above overbought on the daily.

AUDNZD – The AUDNZD broke below short term trendline support yesterday
near 1.1265 and quickly traded down to 1.1163 today before reversing and
rallying to test the breakout point as resistance. Still, a short term
bearish bias is warranted as long as price remains below the former
support line on a daily closing basis. Longer term, the real break and
directional bias comes on a decline below the January low of 1.1055 or a
rally through the March high of 1.1484. A glance at the monthly
suggests that the break will be to the downside as the previous trend is
down.

Jamie Saettele
Technical Currency Analyst
Forex Capital Markets LLC
New York, NY 10005
Tel (212) 897-7660
Fax (212) 897-7669
Toll Free 888-503-6739
jsaettele@dailyfx.com