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Euro, Pound soar on US pessimism

2 July 2010

The Euro and British Pound are among the global currencies making great strides against the slumping US dollar. One Euro is currently worth $1.2554 after reaching as high as $1.2613 in earlier Friday (July 2) trade, while a British Pound is fetching an even $1.52 after peaking at $1.5234 earlier in the day.

The Euro has been retracing its recent fall to below $1.19 when the credit crisis peaked in Europe. As support and assistance programs were finalized, worst case concerns were relieved and helped stabilize the currency. Now, it is renewed pessimism about a rebound in the US economy that has hampered the dollar.

Along with the stock market, the dollar’s recent weakness can be largely attributed to continued problems with the jobs market. Unemployment remains high and this week’s jobs reports showed less than expected gains in jobs and ongoing issues with jobless claims. Many analysts had long forecasted that the jobs sector would be on the rebound by the second half of 2010.

The housing market is uncertain at best as markets wait to see the effects of the expiration of the popular home buyer tax credit which led to inflated home sales in the spring, possibly stealing from normally busy summer months.

Adding to the growing concern about the state of the US economy, the June consumer confidence index registered at 52.9, down from May’s 62.7 reading. All of this recent pessimism and negative data bolsters the likelihood of a continued no to low interest rate policy from the Fed, which is sure to keep the dollar under wraps.

The yen has also made strong gains against the greenback this week as the dollar is falling toward the 87 yen level and near long-term lows in the 85-86 yen range.

The Euro is at a key level of resistance in the $1.25-1.26 range, which previously served as major multi-year support before the credit crunch cause speculators to flee the Euro in droves in late May and early June.

Americans are set to embrace the Fourth of July Independence Day weekend. Perhaps the patriotic sentiment will carry forth and produce great consumer confidence, business expansion, and prosperity for all in the second half of 2010.

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