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Forex Outlook

 
21 June 2006

By Finotec – The yen rose against all the major currencies on Wednesday, extending gains made after the Bank of Japan chief signaled that Japanese… … interest rates are on course to rise for the first time in six years.

The Japanese currency was up 0.3 percent against the dollar a day after BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui said that policy decisions should be made as early as economic conditions allow.

The yen hit a record low against the Euro and an eight-week low against the dollar at the start of the week due to concerns that a rate rise might be delayed. However,

The dollar had slipped to 114.50 yen from around 114.95 yen in late U.S. trade on Tuesday, pushed lower by Japanese exporters' selling of the U.S. currency.

The Euro saw little change at 144.60 yen, off the record high of 145.86 yen.

Despite the yen's rise, the currency was seen as being constrained in a market l of Fukui's remarks that acting early on policy did not mean the central bank would move more quickly than financial markets expect.

Currency strategists at JPMorgan write that the Yen is still expected to be an underperformer, due to the gradual nature in which interest rates will be raised.

EUR/USD
Spot Price: 1.2615

Buying Signals:
The pairing is traded on the lower bollinger band.
The slow stochastic is in an uptrend.
Probability: 57%

Selling Signals:
RSI exits the oversold zone.
Probability: 43%

USD/JPY

Spot Price: 114.75

Buying Signals:
RSI exits from the overbought zone.
Probability: 45%

Selling Signals:
The MACD forms a bearish cross.
The pairing is traded on the upper bollinger band.
Probability: 55%

Daily technicals

USD/CHF
The momentum of the uptrend is still high but the dailies apear to be overbought.

EUR/JPY
The downtrend, which began yesterday, after the pairing did not succeede in breaking the 145.80 resistance level, is still in place. The dailies are pointing down.

EUR/GBP
Daily studies indicate that the market is still bearish. However, the RSI in the hourly studies are indicating neutral levels.

USD/CAD
Strong resistance is apparant at the 1.1250-55 level. Daily studies are in neutral zone.

By Finotec

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