U.S. Currency Takes A Hit Across Majors
Euro zone, traders boosted the underlying spot price as… … profit taking ensued.
Nearing the top of the technical range that the currency has been trading of late,
traders capped gains and flipped short term positions in light of the
pessimistic industrial production figures for the month of September.
Declining 0.4 percent on the month, productive output fell in comparison
to expectations of a 0.5 percent rise. This now places the annualized
figure considerably lower than the expected 1.8 percent, at a paltry 1
percent. With the current figure considerably lower than the previously
witnessed 2.7 percent rise, some doubts over the widely anticipated
interest rate rise may now be surfacing. As a result, further downside
may be in store for the single currency as euro sellers resurface with
each resurgence.
Technically Speaking
Approaching trendline resistance, the price action is looking to keep
in the tight range that has loomed over the single currency for th past
two weeks. A confluence with the 23.6 percent fib from the monthly move
looks to once again cap the upside momentum. However, a penetration
above would lead to a probable test of the 38.2 percent fib at 1.1849.
Downside tests remain at the previously tested 1.1642 floor.
USDCAD
Largest Investment Of The Year
According to Statistics Canada, foreign interests made the largest
investment of the year in Canadian securities for the month of
September. Bolstered by a rising benchmark equities market and
anticipated interest rates hikes, global investments rang to the tune of
C$4.9 billion with two thirds going to stocks and C$1.9 billion falling
into bonds. Fixed income purchases were overwhelmingly seen in the
domestic interests as Canadians invested $3.9 billion in fixed income of
their total $5 billion.
Crude Oil Lends No Help
Crude oil took a dip today, falling to the lowest level in more than
five months as U.S. stockpiles remain robust ahead of the winter season.
Crude supplies in the world's largest economy are now 12 percent
higher compared to a year ago as refining capacities are running at 86.2
percent. As a result, contracts settled at $56.34 down $1.54 a barrel
at the close. Adding to bullish woes, OPEC member Venezuela suggested
that the organization consider cutting back production has refining
capabilities have returned to the Gulf Coast.
Technically Speaking
Although a choppy two weeks, the USDCAD currency pair has steadied its
previous decline to test resistance at 1.1960/70 on multiple occasions
before dropping off today. Finding consolidation at the 38.2 percent
fib level, further downside looks to be capped as the current price
falls in line with previous dips to the lower trendline. However,
penetration would see an immiment test of the 50 fib at 1.1808 with
upside ceilings at the 23.6 percent fib and the aforementioned
resistance.
USDCHF
Normalising Rates
Swissie strength on the session looked to be backed by profit taking on
recent dollar strength as traders believed the recent run up to be
slightly overextended in the currency pair. Furthering the drop off,
market participants also took to statements released by Swiss National
Bank board member Philipp Hildebrand. Reiterating earlier sentiment by
Chairman Jean Pierre Roth, Hildebrand confirmed the central bank's
intentions of raising the interest rate at the next quarterly rate
setting meeting on December 15th by stating that current monetary policy
was “currently too expansive and jeopardizes price stability in the
medium term.” Although with current consumer price inflation slightly
lower than the central bank's forecasted 1.2 percent, traders are
still expecting the move as Swiss officials bandwagon the idea of higher
interest rates.
Technically Speaking
Rising considerably in the overnight, the currency pair has retraced
slightly and found a temporary floor at the 23.6 percent fib level from
the two week move. Now establishing a bottomside trendline, the current
consolidation leads one to believe that an upside swing may be forming.
Comparatively to the downside, penetration of the lower trendline and
fib level would be necessary in sparking an imminent test of the 38.2
percent at 1.3064. Probable capping looks to occur at this level as
evidenced by the multiple tests.
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