By DailyFX – CAD/JPY * After trading along its along its 20 day SMA towards the end of last week, CAD/JPY has plunged to the… … 100.00 figure.

Although currently supported by the 4/4
low at 99.99, the pair has broken (just today in fact) the supporting trendline from
the symmetrical triangle that began on 1/9. This combined with declining
oscillators on the daily echoes a bearish bias and an eventual test of the 3/20 low
at 98.98. A bounce off of recent lows (99.91) encounters resistance at the 4/25 low
of 100.42 with additional strength targeting the 5/1 low at 100.78.

CHF/JPY * The head and shoulders reversal pattern commented on last week has morphed
into a double top (evident on daily, hourly, etc.) and the pair has since dropped
200 pips and now trades at the confluence of the 50 day SMA / supporting trendline
from 2/27 at 90.65. A break of the trendline would seriously damage any hope for
bulls and expose the 4/27 low at 89.82. Similar to CAD/JPY, declining daily
oscillators lend a bearish tone and is reinforced by a recent negative MACD cross.
A bounce off of trendline support runs into the 23.6% and 38.2% fibos of 92.77-90.44
at 90.99 and 91.33.

NZD/JPY * Sometimes, an inexact science produces exactly the results one was looking
for. Such was the case with NZD/JPY. “Bolstering the bearish outlook is a head and
shoulders continuation pattern” from last week proved visionary as the rout is on
and the pair trades nearly 350 pips lower than it did on 5/2. If this is a 3rd wave
of a larger 3rd wave (which it looks like), then hang on because the ride may last
awhile. Supports come in at the 138.2% and 161.8% extensions of wave 1
(87.05-77.45) at 68.78 and 66.50. In the event that this break below the 3/28 low
is fails, 70.47 may be resistance (3/28 low) followed by the 5/3 high at 73.12.

Jamie Saettele
Technical Currency Analyst
Forex Capital Markets LLC
New York, NY 10005
Tel (212) 897-7660
Fax (212) 897-7669
Toll Free 888-503-6739
jsaettele@dailyfx.com